A Perplexing Primary
By Lauren Chang and Gaurav Varma
**Disclaimer: This article was written before the Nevada Caucus took place on February 22nd and therefore includes predictions for Nevada (Bernie Sanders ended up winning the Nevada Caucus with about 46.8% of the vote) as well as some polling information that may have changed by now.
Bernie is winning the popular vote. Buttigieg leads in delegates. Warren is slipping, and Biden is in free fall. Bloomberg is waiting in the wings, and all of a sudden Klobuchar is a serious contender? The Democratic presidential primary is a mess, and the results out of Iowa and New Hampshire have been the opposite of conclusive. With the Nevada caucus and South Carolina primary just around the corner, Super Tuesday approaching fast, and the Democratic National Convention less than five months away, here are our predictions on who will win the remaining early states, a jam-packed Super Tuesday, and ultimately the Democratic nomination.
Nevada
Lauren:
Nevada strays from Iowa and New Hampshire in that it is much more ethnically diverse. 30% of the state’s population is Latino and 10% is African American, with Asian American numbers fast on the rise. When compared to Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s 90%+ Caucasian racial makeup, it may be clear that these racial differences can potentially lead to vastly different results than the ones we’ve already seen.
While Klobuchar and Buttigieg were able to gain much more momentum than previously expected of them, it is possible the brakes may be applied in Nevada, as both these candidates have not polled as highly amongst voters of color as they have amongst white voters. Because of this, I believe candidates that have garnered support from diverse groups since the beginning of their campaigns, particularly Bernie Sanders, will come out on top. However, I believe Joe Biden will follow closely behind, and Elizabeth Warren soon after, possibly leading to a three-way split of delegates.
Gaurav:
Bernie’s theory of change isn’t working… yet. For months the Sanders campaign has been claiming that he would be the most electable candidate in a general election since he can excite people who usually do not vote into turning out, dramatically expanding the Democratic base. It’s not that Bernie has been underperforming so far — his performances in Iowa and New Hampshire were very close to how the polls predicted they would be.
It’s just that his opponents, specifically Pete Buttigieg in Iowa and Amy Klobuchar in New Hampshire, have been overperforming. By themselves Pete and Amy are weak candidates nationally, and with Biden and Warren faltering as well, the current race barely has a front-runner in Sanders; FiveThirtyEight’s primary forecast reflects this, as it currently predicts no one will win a majority of the 3979 pledged delegates that actually vote for the Democratic nominee at the national convention. Nevada could change that.
In 2016, Bernie’s campaign was widely criticized for being too white, but this cycle it is Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren with the overwhelmingly white bases. In fact, in Iowa and New Hampshire, among the small number of minorities who voted, Sanders crushed, receiving more than double the number of non-white votes as his nearest competitor. This tremendous minority support, especially from Latinos, may be the key to unlocking the Bernie campaign’s grand theory of change. Sure, Sanders was not able to outperform the polls in almost entirely white states, but in a state as diverse as Nevada? It is nonwhite voters that have the most variable turnout rates from election to election, so if there is anyone the Sanders campaign can turn out in record numbers, it is the Nevada electorate.
I believe — if the Nevada Democratic Party can well… actually count the votes — Sanders will run away with the Nevada caucuses with Biden and Warren in a distant second and third, respectively.
South Carolina
Lauren:
South Carolina is definitely a more difficult state to predict. Previously, many, including the man himself, believed that Joe Biden would come out as a clear winner, but after his poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire, it is possible that the momentum Biden thought he would have is turning against him. His previously high support amongst African American voters have dropped drastically, from 49% to 27%. However, many other candidates, including Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigeg, and Tom Steyer, have also been underperforming in this area. Despite this, however, I believe Biden will come out relatively strong (strong enough to carry his campaign, however, is another question) in this state’s primary, followed by closely Sanders, with the other candidates underperforming.
Gaurav:
No one will drop out after Nevada, South Carolina on the other hand…
More than anything else black voters, especially older black voters, are pragmatic; they vote on electability. They stuck with Biden after his busing incident because he seemed like the most electable candidate, and now they are turning, at least somewhat, to Michael Bloomberg of all people, as Biden is imploding. If Bernie Sanders carries Nevada overwhelmingly, as I suspect he will, I expect him to receive a boost among black voters similar to what Obama experienced in 2008 after he won Iowa when black voters concluded that he really could win. This will carry him to a narrow, but consequential win in South Carolina.
After two poor showings in diverse states, I expect Amy Klobuchar to drop out as funding dries up and she shows no chance of competing on Super Tuesday. Tom Steyer has essentially staked his entire campaign on doing well in South Carolina. While I think he will do well, garnering around ten percent, I don’t think he’ll be able to continue to justify spending so much of his own money without a single win to show for it.
That leaves Joe Biden. I have no idea what he will do if he narrowly loses South Carolina. I could see him limping into Super Tuesday, trying to spin a close second-place finish as a win, but with funding drying up and Michael Bloomberg waiting to take his place as the leader of the moderate lane, I could also see him dropping out. Whatever the case, he probably won’t be relevant heading into Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday
Lauren:
An extremely long-awaited Tuesday for all the candidates, it is likely that this Super Tuesday will bring some upsets. First up, the two biggest states. Sanders has consistently led California polls with a sizable lead, and this will likely show on March 3, with Warren coming in second and potentially splitting the delegates between them.
In Texas, however, the electability of Sanders may be more scrutinized, potentially leading in a three-way split between Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg, who has surprisingly shown to be polling currently at 17.6%. These two states hold the most amount of delegates, so it’s likely that if Sanders has a positive performance in both of them, it’ll boost his status to becoming the nominee.
Gaurav:
And here comes the million-dollar question. How will Michael Bloomberg’s truly ridiculous spending and strategy of skipping the first four nominating contests come to fruition?
Sanders is leading in polls of the largest states of March 3, but Bloomberg is rising steadily. Just a few weeks ago I would have thought the momentum generated by the winner of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina would prove too great for the late-entrant to overcome, but close decisions and vote-counting difficulties in the first two states have proven me wrong so far. I still expect the momentum from Sanders’ strong showings in Nevada and South Carolina to give him a fairly large plurality of the delegates awarded on Super Tuesday, but a strong Bloomberg performance could definitely split the vote enough for a contested convention to occur; this may even be the billionaire’s primary (no pun intended) goal.
Nomination
Lauren:
Based on my other predictions, I believe Bernie Sanders will ultimately end up with the nomination. However, if his performance is subpar, then we have a possibility of ending up with a Biden, Warren, or Bloomberg nominee. The current numbers poll these candidates in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place, respectfully, but as was shown by the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, these polls may not truly reflect the all numbers that will come to light after Super Tuesday. Voters may be drawn to Bloomberg’s background similarities to Trump but ideological differences, or Klobuchar’s Midwestern roots and more moderate stances than some perhaps “radical” Democrats.
Gaurav:
I think Bernie Sanders will win an outright majority of the pledged delegates and take the nomination in the first round of voting at the convention, but it is nowhere near a guarantee. If Biden wins South Carolina, or even just decides to stay in through Super Tuesday and Bloomberg does well enough in the suburbs of California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and New York, we could very well have a contested convention in which Bernie has by far the most pledged delegates, but not enough to win the nomination.
If that happens, Warren telling her delegates to support Sanders to create a majority in the first round of voting seems less likely by the day, as her embrace of identity politics and love affair with Amy Klobuchar indicates a tightening relationship with the party establishment. Besides, given the way Warren has performed in Iowa and New Hampshire, she may not have enough delegates to give to Bernie for him to secure a majority, anyway.
In the event of a contested convention, all bets really are off. Bloomberg could use his wealth and connections to convince superdelegates to back him, while fear of alienating Sanders supporters could lead some party insiders to back Bernie. Ultimately, if there is a contested convention, my money would be on Michael Bloomberg to emerge as the nominee, but six months out, it isn’t really possible to predict.
Sources: [vox.com, thehill.com]