The Witherly Heights Forecast on Electoral College

By Avani Sethi and Katherine Lamont

While some states are firmly red or blue, the 2020 election has left a number of states to a toss-up. Here is the official Witherly Heights predictions and what the individual decisions we have made about states will mean for the race. These predictions are based upon the latest averages of polls to the Economist. 

For most states, the electoral college predictions are quite obvious and straightforward: California’s going blue and Alabama is going red. Each party’s respective candidate has a 99% chance of winning these specific states. For swing states, states that have an almost equal chance of being won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate, the predictions are more tricky. For some of these states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Georgia, both candidates seem equally probable to win. The rest of the usual swing states include: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin. 

Arizona:

Arizona has 11 total electoral votes and Biden is predicted to win currently at a plus 3.5 poll. Biden is running stronger than in previous surveys, though the race might be tight because of a low voter turnout. Biden’s chance of winning the most votes is 66% whereas Trump stands at a much lower 34%. 

Florida:

Florida has a total of 29 electoral votes and is leaning towards Biden. In 3 live interviews, Biden has led Trump by 3 points, 1 point, and 4 points, respectfully. Although there is a margin of error, it seems as if the Democratic party may be in an advantageous position. Biden is predicted to be at a plus 3.8 points ahead of Trump. Biden has a 77% chance of winning and Trump is at 23%. 

Iowa:

Iowa has a total of 6 electoral votes. In the 2016 election, Trump had a landslide win and while Biden, this year, has a plus one lead, Trump might once again win this state. However, most predictions and surveys show both candidates at a 49%/49% voting success, so this is very much a toss up. 

Georgia

Georgia has a total of 16 electoral votes. Last year, Trump had a plus 5.1 advantage but this year both Trump and Biden seem to be deadlocked at 45% each. Two recent polls show Biden with a larger lead, but many observers believe the race is close. This speaks volumes by itself about how impactful this 2020 campaign has been to Georgia, a state that hasn’t been democratic in almost 4 decades has changed. 

New Hampshire:

New Hampshire has 4 electoral votes and it seems that Joe Biden will likely beat President Trump. Biden’s support in New Hampshire is predicted to be around 49% to 58% whereas Trump stands much lower at 42% to 51%. Biden seems to be ahead by a large margin but Trump has hosted a rally recently in the state that could possibly make the scales tip in his favor. 

North Carolina:

North Carolina has a total of 15 electoral votes and seems to be leaning in favor of Biden. In the 2016 election, Trump was narrowly behind Clinton two weeks before the election and was able to close strong. This election Biden is just 2 points ahead of Trump among likely voters, and has a 67% chance of winning the most votes. Trump only has a 33% chance of winning so unless there is a big turnaround North Carolina will quite possibly be a blue state this election. 

Pennsylvania: 

Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes and the current predictions believe Biden will win in this state. Both parties and many pollsters see Pennsylvania as the state most likely to decide the presidency, but we won’t really know until after the election. Biden has an 89% chance of winning this state where Trump is at a much more dismal 11%. 

Ohio:

Ohio has 18 total electoral votes and is actually one of the few swing states that seem to be leaning in Trump’s favor. A recent Fox News Poll showed Trump to be at a 3 point lead over Biden and is one of the many surveys that show Trump success beyond the margin of error, meaning it is quite probable he will win this state. Biden’s currently predicted chance of winning the most votes is around 31% whereas Trump’s chance is around 69%. 

Texas:

Texas has a total of 38 electoral votes and although it is moving quickly towards the blue it doesn’t seem like the Democrats will win it this year. Currently Biden has a 29% chance of winning Texas, and Trump is at a more prominent 71%. However, the race could become close and even tip to the blue, as Texas has only had 1 live-call poll but has a high turnout of voters. 

Wisconsin 

Wisconsin has a total of 10 electoral votes and has Biden quite ahead by margins. Unlike Pennsylvania, Biden is much closer to a majority support than Clinton was back in 2016, meaning, it is unlikely Trump will be able to reclaim this state. Biden has a 92% of winning this state, and Trump is at an insignificant 9%. Wisconsin is another one of those states that seems to be gradually going over to the blue. 

Sources: [fivethrityeight.com, economist.com, bipartisanreport.com]